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Market Recap

Last Week’s Headlines

Economy & World News

• Euro-Area Economy Outperforms Expectations in Q4

  Euro-area GDP grew 0.2% in the fourth quarter, double the initial estimate, driven by strong consumer spending and business investments, according to newly released data.

• Trump Halts Military Aid to Ukraine Amid Tensions with Zelenskyy

  Following a heated clash with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, Trump has paused U.S. military aid to Ukraine, citing a need to review its contribution to peace efforts, according to a White House official.

• OPEC+ to Restart Oil Production Amid Trump’s Push for Lower Prices

  OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, will increase oil output by 138,000 barrels per day starting in April, aiming to restore 2.2 million barrels per day by 2026. The decision, influenced by Trump’s call for lower oil prices, sent Brent crude tumbling 2.8% to a three-month low.

• EU Unveils €800B Defense Spending Plan Amid U.S. Security Shift

  The European Union plans to extend €150 billion in loans and unlock €650 billion in national defense spending over four years, responding to Trump’s reduced security commitments in Europe. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called it an “era of rearmament”, driving the euro to a multi-week high.

• China Sets 2025 GDP Growth Target at 5%, Raises Deficit to Record 4%

  Beijing has set a growth target of “around 5%” for 2025 and increased its budget deficit to 4% of GDP, the highest on record since 2010, as it rolls out stimulus measures amid rising U.S. trade tensions.

• U.S. Adds 151K Jobs in February, Missing 170K Forecast

  Nonfarm payrolls grew by 151,000, improving from January’s revised 125,000 but falling short of the 170,000 estimate. Federal jobs declined by 10,000, while average hourly earnings rose 0.3%, with annual wage growth slightly below expectations at 4%.

  • U.S. Layoffs Surge 245% in February to Highest Level Since 2020

    Employers announced 172,017 job cuts, marking a 245% increase from January, with Elon Musk’s federal workforce reductions accounting for 62,242 layoffs, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

• ECB Cuts Key Rate to 2.5%, Signals Less Restrictive Policy

  The European Central Bank lowered its deposit facility rate to 2.5%, a widely expected move, while adjusting its language to describe policy as “meaningfully less restrictive”, hinting at a potential shift in its monetary stance.

• FAA Halts Florida Flights After SpaceX Starship Explodes in Space

  SpaceX’s Starship exploded during a flight test, causing debris fallout and prompting the FAA to temporarily ground flights at several Florida airports. This marks the second Starship mishap this year, despite an ongoing investigation into a prior failure.

• Trump Backs Stablecoin Regulations, Orders U.S. Bitcoin Reserve

  Trump pledged support for stablecoin legislation while announcing the creation of a U.S. strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a separate digital asset stockpile. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasized plans to keep the U.S. dollar dominant, with stablecoins playing a key role.

• Trump Exempts Mexico and Canada from 25% Tariffs Under USMCA

  Trump signed orders delaying 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods covered by USMCA, citing illegal immigration and fentanyl trafficking concerns. The exemptions last until April 2, when the administration plans to introduce reciprocal and sector-specific duties worldwide.

• China’s Exports Rise Just 2.3%, Imports Drop 8.4% in Early 2025

  China’s exports grew 2.3% in the first two months of 2025, well below the 5% forecast, marking the slowest pace since April 2024. Meanwhile, imports fell 8.4%, the sharpest decline since July 2023, signaling weaker global demand.

Public Markets

• Nvidia and Broadcom Test Intel's Chip Manufacturing

  Chip designers Nvidia and Broadcom are conducting manufacturing tests with Intel, signaling potential confidence in its advanced production capabilities. However, Intel's foundry business faces delays until mid-2026, with revenue expected to remain low until at least 2027.

• TSMC Plans $100B U.S. Investment to Expand AI Chip Production

  TSMC, the world’s top AI chipmaker, announced plans to invest $100 billion in U.S. manufacturing, expanding its footprint to a half-dozen advanced fabrication plants. The move aligns with Trump’s push for domestic chip production, reinforcing the U.S. role in AI and semiconductor innovation.

• Aramco Slashes 2025 Dividend to $85.4B Amid Lower Oil Prices

  Aramco’s total dividend payout for 2025 will drop to $85.4 billion from $124.2 billion in 2024, as lower oil prices pushed net profit down to $106.2 billion. The cut will impact Saudi Arabia’s state revenue and widen its budget deficit.

• Elliott Pushes for Change at Phillips 66 with Board Shake-Up

  Elliott Investment Management has nominated seven directors, led by John Pike, to Phillips 66’s board, aiming to improve governance and push for a midstream business spinoff or sale. The move follows Elliott’s $2.5 billion stake in the company and a prior $1 billion campaign in 2023.

• Kenvue Settles Proxy Fight with Starboard, Adds Three Directors

  Kenvue has reached an agreement with activist investor Starboard Value, appointing Jeff Smith, Sarah Hofstetter, and Erica Mann to its board. The Johnson & Johnson spinoff, known for brands like Aveeno, Band-Aid, Listerine, and Tylenol, aims to strengthen its leadership amid investor pressure.

• UK Clears Microsoft’s $13B OpenAI Investment, Ending Antitrust Uncertainty

  The UK’s Competition and Markets Authority ruled that Microsoft’s $13 billion investment in OpenAI doesn’t warrant a full merger probe, easing regulatory pressure after 14 months of scrutiny. However, Microsoft still faces U.S. regulatory concerns over its AI and cloud dominance.

• Mantle Ridge Takes $1B Stake in Cognizant, Calls Shares Undervalued

  Activist investor Mantle Ridge has quietly built a $1 billion position in Cognizant, arguing the tech-services firm's stock remains undervalued. The fund has been engaging with Cognizant's leadership, which saw a CEO change in 2023, to push for further share price improvements.

Real Estate

•  BlackRock-Led Consortium Buys Panama Canal Ports for $22.8B

  A BlackRock-led group is acquiring majority stakes in key ports at both ends of the Panama Canal from Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison, a $22.8 billion deal that shifts control to U.S. firms. The move follows Trump’s warnings about Chinese influence and his repeated threats to take control of the canal.

M&A, IPO’s, Bankruptcies

• Prada Nears €1.5B Deal to Acquire Versace

  Milan-based Prada is close to finalizing a €1.5 billion acquisition of Versace from Capri Holdings, with a deal expected this month after due diligence found no major risks. While talks are progressing, the timing and valuation remain subject to change.

• Shell Explores Sale of Chemicals Assets in U.S. and Europe

  Shell is reviewing its chemicals operations with Morgan Stanley, considering divestments in Texas, Pennsylvania, Louisiana, the U.K., Germany, and the Netherlands as part of a shift toward more profitable ventures. Potential buyers include private-equity firms and Middle Eastern investors.

• CoreWeave Eyes IPO After 737% Revenue Surge

  Cloud provider CoreWeave, which sells Nvidia-powered processors, saw 2024 revenue skyrocket to $1.92 billion, with Microsoft contributing 62% of its earnings as it prepares to go public.

• Walgreens Nears $10B Take-Private Deal with Sycamore Partners

  Walgreens Boots Alliance is close to a $10 billion buyout by private-equity firm Sycamore Partners, with a deal potentially finalizing this week. If completed, Sycamore plans to retain the U.S. retail business while selling or taking public other divisions.

  • Private Lenders Discuss $4.5B Debt Package for Walgreens Buyout

    HPS Investment Partners and Ares Management are among lenders in talks to provide $4.5 billion in debt for Sycamore Partners’ potential buyout of Walgreens Boots Alliance, a deal that would split the pharmacy retailer into separate businesses.

• Honeywell Acquires Sundyne for $2.2B in All-Cash Deal

  Honeywell is buying pump-and-compressor maker Sundyne from Warburg Pincus for $2.2 billion, strengthening its core automation and control systems business. The acquisition comes as Honeywell prepares to break into three entities, with the Sundyne deal expected to boost sales and earnings in its first full year.

Earnings this week

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